Black Friday is exciting because anything can happen. Every year, shoppers have plenty of surprises (and Black Friday 2025 will be no exception). From earlier and longer Black Friday sales to AI and tariffs playing a bigger role, we’re prepared for quite a holiday shopping season!
To help you get ready for it all, we’re highlighting our Black Friday predictions for 2025.
As Nov. 28 gets closer, you can see if our Black Friday predictions for this year are correct by checking out the official Black Friday ad scans.
## How has Black Friday changed in recent years?
Over the past few years, we’ve experienced everything from a pandemic Black Friday with supply chain issues to earlier sales and deals with “Black Friday creep.”
The shopping extravaganza we know and love today has gone from a one-day shopping sprint into a season-long deals marathon. The way that retailers release Black Friday ads has also completely changed.
- The tradition of releasing one big ad per retailer has morphed into multiple ad drops.
- Some of them come out surprisingly early, while other ads advertise month-long sales.
We expect to see something similar for this year’s sales (plus some new surprises).
1. Retailers will continue to stretch Black Friday out
A few years ago, Black Friday turned into more of a week than a day, with more retailers kicking off their online Black Friday deals a few days to a week before Black Friday itself.
However, recent shopping seasons have pushed the envelope. Black Friday has since transformed from a week to a season, with retailers firing on all cylinders to start the hype early and keep it going until Thanksgiving weekend. We think we'll see a similar "marathon" approach to Black Friday 2025.
2. Thanksgiving Day will be an online shopping bonanza
In the past, many stores opened their doors to Black Friday shoppers on Thanksgiving Day. However, the pandemic put an end to that. What started as a safety concern transformed into an opportunity to appreciate hardworking employees on a day that’s all about gratitude.
Back in 2021, Target announced it would keep its stores closed on Turkey Day every year moving forward. The CEO of Walmart, John Furner, has also said that keeping stores open on Thanksgiving Day is “a thing of the past.”
Although most stores will be closed on Thanksgiving Day, there will still be plenty of online sales and deals to enjoy.
3. Tariffs may affect prices during the holiday shopping season
Even before the holidays, many shoppers have had questions about how tariffs will affect prices at their favorite stores. As part of our Black Friday predictions for 2025, we think tariffs may increase the price of items around the holidays. Additionally, popular items might sell out faster or not be available at all.
While we still have a lot of unknown surrounding tariffs, it’s still wise to shop early and do your research to find the best prices on Black Friday.
4. AI will support Black Friday shoppers and stores this year
AI is playing a bigger role in all our lives in 2025, so it makes sense that it’s also going to influence how many people shop this year.
54% off shoppers report that they plan to use AI to help with their holiday shopping by:
- Comparing prices
- Searching for deals
- Getting product recommendations
Retailers will also rely more on AI. According to Savannah Cherry of Slingshot, "Retailers are deploying AI to support everything from pricing and promotions to fulfillment and stock allocation."
This will likely mean smarter and more personalized offers throughout the holiday shopping season.
5. Retailer memberships will continue to be prominent
Amazon is known for hosting sales that are exclusively available to its Prime members. Prime Day is an obvious example. However, Prime members also often have early or exclusive access to specific Black Friday deals and promotions.
Both Walmart and Target also reward their members with early access to Black Friday sales and even exclusive access to certain deals.
We expect retailers to continue to entice shoppers to sign up for their store membership programs this Black Friday by offering more special deals and early-access shopping.
To take advantage of these promotions, we recommend signing up for membership with your favorite retailer before the holiday shopping season begins. Great options include Amazon Prime, Target Circle and Walmart+.
5. You'll want to snap up the top toys before Black Friday
Hot toys selling out around the holiday season is nothing new. After all, shoppers all rushed to buy Tickle Me Elmos and Furbies back in the late '90s. This demand for the latest and greatest toys is still high in 2025.
We’ll soon make our official predictions for the hottest holiday toys of 2025. However, you can bet the Nintendo Switch 2 and the viral Labubus will make the cut for Black Friday 2025.
6. Buy now, pay later programs will grow in popularity
Over the past couple of years, we've seen more and more retailers partner with companies that allow shoppers to pay for a purchase in installments.
According to Bankrate, 30% of U.S. adults have used at least one buy now, pay later program. With inflation and tariffs affecting prices this year, we expect even more shoppers to use these buy now, pay later programs in 2025.
7. Black Friday ads will still exist in some form
Black Friday ad releases fuel the Black Friday hype. Between October and the big day itself, retailers announce their deals via their much-anticipated deals flyers, which used to be mailed but now circulate digitally as "ad scans."
While some retailers may advertise their deals exclusively via their websites, emails and social media, we'll still see Black Friday ads this year. These ad are just so popular with consumers and the media. We also expect to see multiple Black Friday ad releases from popular retailers like Best Buy, Target and Walmart.
As for when the Black Friday 2025 ads will start coming out, you can expect to see some of them released as early as October this year.
8. Cyber Monday 2022 will be a Black Friday repeat (mostly)
Despite the hype Cyber Monday has gotten over the years, its deals are generally recycled from Black Friday. Having drummed up excitement over sold-out Black Friday deals, retailers typically release similar savings and pitch them to shoppers as a "second chance."
This means you shouldn’t hold out for Cyber Monday. If a popular product you want is on sale on Black Friday, buy it. Then hit Cyber Monday sales for whatever you missed on Black Friday.
